A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
